Who is going to be the sleeper Final 4 team this year?

In the last nine of the last ten tournaments at least one team has made the final 4 as a 7 seed or lower. The three most recent examples are 2022 UNC, 2021 UCLA, and 2023 FAU. All the Cinderella final 4 teams have one major characteristic in common. Each team has elite perimeter creation. UCLA had the trio of Johnny Juzang, Jamie Jaquez, and Tyger Campbell. UNC had the duo of Rj Davis and Caleb Love. FAU had the duo of Johnnel Davis and Alijah Martin. There is one team that right now is projected an 8-11 seed who has this level of perimeter creation. That team is the New Mexico Lobos.  

               New Mexico is led by the guard trio of Donavan Dent, Jamal Mashburn Jr., and Jaelen House. All 3 guards could be go to scorers and assume that role for this team at different times. They all are averaging above 14 points and lead New Mexico to one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation. They aren’t just scorers though Dent is one of the best passers in the nation averaging 5.5 assists a game right now, House is one of the premier defenders in the nation averaging 2.5 steals a game to go along with his 16 points and 4 assists a game, and Jamal Mashburn is a do it all guy who might be the best pure scorer out of the 3. The three guards are all superstars, and they lead New Mexico to the 38th ranked offense on KenPom. The 38th ranked offense seems a little bit low for an offense led by that much talent, but the KenPom rating does not tell the whole story. They score 83 points a game which is good for 17th in the nation. They score that many points by having as many opportunities as possible not only with their pace which is the 6th fastest in the nation but also with their elite ball security. The Lobos turn the ball over at one of the lowest rates in the nation at just 14% of their possessions. The one problem with New Mexico's offense is the amount of 3 pointers they make. Just 24% of their points come from behind the arc. In five out of their seven losses the Lobos have been outscored from behind the arc. However, they are good at limiting their opponents from 3, which hedges their own struggles, but if a team can get three pointers off it could cause trouble for the Lobos. At the end of the day this New Mexico team can score with any team in the nation and that is what makes them so dangerous in March.  

           The tournament is not just about an offense though and New Mexico's defense grades out even better than their offense. They rank 31st on KenPom in defensive efficiency. They are lead on defense by their elite turnover creation and shot blocking ability. The 2 starting big man freshman Jt Toppin and senior Nelly Junior Joseph are some of the most athletic bigs in the country which leads them to combine to average 3.3 blocks a game. Their aggressiveness does lead to some foul trouble that has been a common theme throughout New Mexico’s losses. The turnover creation is what really makes them elite though with them forcing turnovers on 20% possessions and a steal on 12% of possessions. Jaelen House and Donovan Dent lead that charge by combining to average 4 steals a game. First-year guard Tru Washington is no slouch either he averages 1.6 steals a game off the bench. When you compare that to New Mexico's just 14% turnover rate it makes them incredibly dangerous. Turnover margin is one of the most important stats in the tournament and New Mexico is almost a guarantee to win the turnover battle. Turnovers really help defensive efficiency which was an important part of each of those Cinderella runs. The 3 most recent Cinderella final 4 teams all had a top 50 defense and New Mexico would be the leader of that group in this stat with the 31st ranked defense. The next highest is FAU last season with the 34th ranked defense. New Mexico is a very balanced team that has all the tools to make a deep tournament run. The tournament draw is especially important because there are elite teams like Uccon or Houston that New Mexico could run into that it is just so hard to beat no matter who you are but if there is any sleeper team to make the final 4 below that 7 seed range it is going to be New Mexico.