Who is going to win the tightest Mid Major conference champion race?
The Missouri Valley Conference race for the regular season title is one of the tightest races in college basketball. Indiana State and Drake are just 1 game apart in conference play and have split the season series against each other. Indiana State currently holds the one game lead in large part due to their elite offense. The Sycamores run one of the more unique offenses in the nation and it all runs through their center Robbie Avila. He is the highest usage player on the team and is second on the team in both points and assists while being first in rebounds. He allows the offense to be so dynamic because he is a high volume 3-point shooting and playmaking at center. Leaving no one clogging up the paint leading to them to be able to force centers to play on the perimeter. This allows them to space the floor and get more driving lanes. So, they can kick the ball out and shoot some of the most 3s in the nation. Robbie is not the only star on this team though Isaiah Swope is one of the best shot makers in the nation especially from three. He shoots an insane 38% on 9 threes a game leading to him averaging 17 points a game. He helps Indiana State to being one of the highest volumes three-point shooting teams in the nation with 39% of their points coming from beyond the arc. A large part of their threes does come inside the halfcourt but a lot of them also come in transition. They have the 30th fastest pace in the nation which leads to highly efficient basketball. Indiana State is the most efficient team in basketball with the highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. They rank top fifteen in 3pt percentage, 2pt percentage, and free throw percentage. Indiana State can score with any team in the nation, but the question is can the defense and rebounding hold up. Those issues were prominent in the two games Indiana State played against high major opponents. Those 2 games were losses to Michigan State and Alabama, both incredibly talented high major teams, but for a tournament hopeful losing by more than 10 in both games is not a good look. One common theme in both of those games is that the Sycamores were outrebounded by 14 and 15 rebounds in each game. Robby Avila is a star, but he has his struggles against stronger interior forces with getting rebounds and stops in the post. He is not equipped to handle powerful centers but if he gets into any foul trouble, it could get much worse. There is only one consistent piece in their rotation other than Avila that is above 6’6 and he is only 6’8. If Avila had any sort of foul trouble, it could get really ugly really quick for Indiana State. This already been highlighted as he did not play in the Alabama game where they got dominated, he was in foul trouble against Michigan State where he played the lowest minutes of his season, in addition he fouled out of the first Drake game where they got beat handily. It is unfortunate that the only data of Indiana State playing high major opponents is largely without their best player making an impact. It could just be a coincidence, or it could have been that the athletes at a program like Michigan State were too much to handle for him leading to foul trouble. Despite this the defense for Indiana State grades out well metrically. Indiana State does apply a decent amount of pressure on the ball, and they are not a bad team on the defensive side of the ball, but they are not going to win a game in the tournament because of their defense. They currently sit as the 83rd ranked defense on KenPom. Some metrics that jump out to as why they grade out this well in this area is they are 19th in limiting free throws and 4th in limiting assists. Limiting free throws is an important stat because of how much it raises the floor of your defense. When you are such an offensively talented team that is all, you really need from your defense just give your offense a chance. If Indiana State can win their conference tournament, they are going to be a very scary team come March. If the Sycamores are hot from three, they can beat anyone in the nation. They are a projected 12 seed right now the projected 5 seeds as of right now include BYU and Dayton which are interesting matchups for Indiana State because they both run a lot of their offense through their centers, but they are not physical bigs. If they faced BYU, it would just be a 3pt contest not a basketball game. Both teams try to shoot as many 3s as possible and in many ways are remarkably similar teams. On the other hand, against Dayton the key would be to try and stop Dayron Holmes. That center matchup would make for must see TV.
Drake is also one of the premier offenses in mid major basketball. That is headlined by a four headed monster of Tucker DeVries, Atin Wright, Kevin Overton, and Darnell Brodie. This group of 4 is very clearly led by Tucker Devries who is averaging 21 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals per game. Depth outside of this top 4 is lacking on this Drake team. No one outside of them averages over 7 points per game. However, the top end talent in Tucker is the one clear advantage that Drake has over Indiana State. He is clearly a high level go to scorer and has been the best player on the court when they have matched up thus far. In the first matchup which Drake won Tucker score 29 points on 10-22 shooting. In the second matchup he followed up the performance with 26 points despite Indiana State pulling out the win. The biggest difference between the 2 matchups is the turnover ratio. In the first matchup Drake won the turnover battle by way of 15-3 while in the second matchup the turnover ratio was 10-9 still in favor of Drake but much closer. Having low turnovers is one of the things that Drake takes pride in. They have the 24th lowest offensive turnover rate and that is seen in the outcomes of the games against the Sycamores where they averaged just 6 turnovers. The lack of turnovers and efficiency are what really stick out about this Drake offense. They are an above average team on 2-point shots, 3-point shots and free throws which really make them elite on offense. The offense is great, but for this team to take the next step it must come from the defense. The only thing that they excel at on the defensive end is rebounding, which is important, but they need to improve in other places. The biggest problem with their defense is the lack of rim protection. They sport one of the lowest block percentages in the nation which leads to teams being very effective inside the arc against them. When you pair that with average foul and turnover rates it makes the defense very suspect. If Drake can come out on top of the Missouri Valley Conference it will be on the back of Tucker DeVries and the rest of their starting lineup making shots. If Drake makes the NCAA tournament, they are a tough matchup for any 5 or 6 seed. However, if that team has a dominant rim pressurer like Washington State’s Issac Jones it could be very problematic for this team.
The other candidates to come out of this league are Bradley, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and Belmont. Bradley is the most likely as they are a tier above these next candidates, but they are still a tier below Drake and Indiana State. Bradley is a fairly good offensive and defensive team. They hang their hat on shooting 3s though. So, if they get hot at the right time, they might be able to run the table and win the tournament. Bradley so far is 0-3 against Drake and Indiana State. Plus, their last game is at Drake which I do not envision them winning. If you are looking for a sleeper team to win this conference it would be Belmont. They also rely heavily on the 3 ball but they have already proven that they can beat Drake by blowing them out by 20 in the beginning of conference play.
