One Team From Each Seed Line 11-16 That Could Bust Your Bracket

When you look at upsets in March Madness the last 3 seasons, they happen for a variety of reasons but the most common theme throughout them is being outshot from 3, turning the ball over too much and being shut down on offense. For example, neither Purdue nor Arizona reached 60 points when they got upset last season; plus, FDU and Princeton each made more threes and won the turnover battle. In Saint Peter’s first round upset they shot a ridiculous 53% from three compared to Kentucky’s measly 27%. In 2022 the threes were less of a storyline than the defense in the first round Iowa, LSU, Colorado State, UCCON, and Alabama all got upset as top 6 seeds and none of them reached 65 points. Upsets happen for many reasons, and that’s why we all love college basketball. However, there is a trend, and it has to do with those factors. Using those factors and other metrics the following are the most likely teams from each seed line to pull off the upset.  

11 seed Indiana State: The Sycamores might be the most explosive offensive team in the nation lead by the trio of Robbie Avila, Isiah Swope, and Ryan Conwell. They have the highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. They are very efficient inside the three-point line, from the free-throw line, and behind the 3pt line with all of their respective percentages ranking inside the top 11. They can score with any team in the nation, the question is can the defense hold up just enough. While I don’t think the defense is great, they do a couple things very well. The Sycamores limit offensive rebounds and don’t foul at an elite level. This results in a very high floor for their defense which is all they need with their offense. Things that could cause a lot of problems for the sycamores is if they turn the ball over too much or if the other team has a dominant inside force. As much as Robbie Avila is an amazing offensive player he can struggle with interior defense against dominant forces. While Indiana State has their flaws if they are making their threes which they do most night they can beat any team in the nation. Every six seed needs to hope they don’t draw a hot Indiana State team. 

12 seed Princeton: The Princeton Tigers were one of last year's biggest Cinderella stories and they are posed to make a similar run last season. They made it to the sweet sixteen on stifling defense, winning the turnover battle, and making more 3s than their opponent. In their 2 wins they held their opponent to 55 and 63 points each while winning the turnover battle and making more threes. The Tigers are an even better team this season. They turn the ball over less, have improved immensely on offense, and force more turnovers. The improvement on offense has a lot to with the breakout of Xaivian Lee. As a freshman last season, he averaged just 5 points off the bench but this season he has improved his averages to nearly 18 points and 4 assists. Lee leads the team with 5.5 threes shot per game and he helps Princeton to score 40% of their points from behind the 3pt line which is good for 10th in the nation. When you combine that with the lowest turnover rate in the nation it makes for some potent offense. Princeton is poised to upset a 5 seed and make a run this year.  

13 seed Samford: The favorite out of the Southern Conference plays one of the more interesting styles out of any tournament team this season. They run a three-quarter court press all game with a man and zone once you get inside the half court. This results in one of the highest turnover rates in the nation. They also play at the 11th fastest pace in the whole nation. If you don’t have depth Samford will wear you out. Depth is one thing that Samford has in droves they regularly go 11 or 12 players deep and no one player plays more than 25 minutes. They employ that team mentality on offense as well, every player is entrusted with the responsibility of putting the ball on the floor. That is what makes their offense so potent they can beat you in so many different ways and with their pace their opponents always feel off balance. Samford also shoots the three ball extremely well at nearly 40%. Samford can beat you with their defensive pressure or their offensive firepower. This is going to be a tough matchup for any 4 seed.  

14 seed Vermont: There were 2 teams that were heavily considered for this spot Vermont and Charlston, but Vermont gets the edge because they bested Charlson when they played earlier in the year. The Catamounts hit all the upset categories. They are a great defensive team, they shoot a lot of threes at a high level, and they win the turnover battle more often than not. They are ranked 59th in KenPom defense and while they don’t force a lot of turnovers, they are one of the best teams at limiting quality shots and the 4th best defensive rebounding team in the nation. The defense is going to have to be what propels this team to an upset. The offense has to step up and carry their weight as well though. Vermont shoots a high volume of threes, and they turn the ball over at one of the lowest rates in the nation. One concern I have with Vermont is the lack of a go to scorer. Their offense is extremely balanced with no one on the team averaging more than 12 points per game but having a go to guy in the tournament is important. If the Catamounts are making their threes and they are playing to their potential on defense, they could pull off an upset.  

15 seed Weber State: While Weber State isn’t even the favorite in their own conference tournament, I think they are going to pull off a small upset and win the Big Sky tournament. If Weber is able to make a run to the tournament, they could be a very dangerous 15 seed. They are led by Dillion Jones he’s averaging 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists a game. Jones is one the best players in the nation. He is most of the offense for the Wildcats which is the problem for this team they don’t have much talent outside of Dillion Jones, but they do a few things at a high level. They don’t turn the ball over, they force turnovers at a good rate, and they defensive rebound very well. The Wildcats do everything possible to make sure they get the most shots that they can. If Dillion Jones can take over the game Weber State could upset a two seed.  

16 seed Fairfield: If a one seed is going to get upset this year it is going to be either Fairfield or Merrimack that pulls off the upset. Fairfield is the team that I think has the best shot of the 16 seeds. Led by the backcourt duo of Jalen Leach and Caleb Fields the Stags shoot one of the highest 3pt percentages in the nation on good volume. This creates a lot of variability in their outcomes meaning they could pull off an upset if the threes are falling. They also have a well above average turnover rate on offense and defense which results in winning the turnover battle most nights. Despite the turnover rate on defense the Stags do not have a good defense whatsoever. They are ranked 231st on KenPom in defense and their offense is good but not elite enough to carry them There is a reason Fairfiled is only a 16 seed, but they do have some potential with the way that they play so if a one seed is going to fall this year it’ll be at the hands of Fairfield.