Which Team is Going To Make It Out of the Big Sky Tournament?
The Big Sky Conference is one of the closest races in college basketball. There are four teams that all have a legitimate shot at winning the conference tournament. Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, Montana, and Weber State. The winner of the regular season was Eastern Washington with a record of 15-3. They are led by the most potent offense in the conference. Their big 3 of Cedric Coward, Casey Jones, and Ethan Price all score above 12 points per game. Coward is the leader of the offense averaging the most points on the team with 15 points per game. He is an electrifying offensive player and a good three-point shooter. He shoots about 40% on over 4 attempts a game but maybe the most impressive thing about his game is the efficiency he plays with. Coward shoots a ridiculous 69% from inside the arc and 58% from the field. Just like for Coward efficiency is the name of the game for the Eagles. If you go strictly by effective field goal percentage the Eagles are the 4th most efficient offensive team in the country. The reason that they are so effective is the way they pass the ball. Sixty-Two percent of their field goals come from assists which is good for 9th in the nation. The Eagles have some of the best-off ball movement in the country and it results in great looks. They always seem to have a guy in the right position or a cut at the perfect time. A lot of the passes come from their bigs in high low scenarios they are all capable passers and use their size to throw some nice passes. While the offense is absolutely elite the defense is not great. They allow some of the most three-point shot attempts in the nation while also allowing an extremely high percentage on those shots. When you combine that with an extremely low turnover rate of 16% it is a recipe for disaster. Their defense not being good in any facet puts so much pressure on their offense to be so efficient. Eastern Washington is still the favorite in this conference but it’s going to be hard for them to overcome their shortcomings. Weber State is a tough matchup for the Eagles, and I don’t think they can overcome the Wildcats.
While Weber State might not be the favorite to win the Big Sky, they are going to be the team that ends up winning the conference tournament. It all starts with Dillon Jones he is by far the best player in the conference and is easily a top 10 player in all of college basketball. He’s averaging 21 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals a game. He is amazing at creating his own shot, but the best part of his game is how he creates shots for others. Jones is in complete control of the offense and is incredible at using his gravity to get open lions for his teammates. I know this might sound crazy, but it is a little bit Lebron like the way he controls the game and can completely take over with his scoring or playmaking. Dillon Jones is not even close to Lebron’s level, but it feels like the Wildcats are in for a 2018 Lebron type run where Dillon Jones puts the team on his back leading them all the way to the Conference Championship, but I think they win this time. If Weber is going to win the conference tournament a couple things need to happen. First and foremost, the supporting cast for the Wildcats need to make their three-point shots. Steven Verplanken, Blaise Threat, Dyson Koehler, and KJ Cunningham are all capable three-point shooters and they making shots in incredibly important when Dillon Jones has so much of the pressure on him. He can create open looks for them almost at will, but they have to make them. The next key for Weber is the turnover ratio. They have an above average offensive turnover and forced turnover rate which leads to the turnover margin usually being in the Wildcats favor. The last key is maximizing what they do well on defense. Wever State is not a good defensive team, but they do some things well. They defensive rebound extremely well, they don’t foul, and they force turnovers. If Weber State can continue to do these things on defense, it will be hard to beat Dillon Jones and the Wildcats in this conference or the NCAA tournament.
One of the other major contenders is the University of Northern Colorado who is tied for the second-best conference record at 12-6. They are a great offensive team that has one of the best scorers in the nation. Saint Thomas is averaging exactly 20 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists on good percentages. He is a high-volume shooter from everywhere. He takes about 15 shots a game and over 6 of them come from beyond the 3pt arc. While Saint Thomas is the best player, Dejour Reaves is an amazing second scoring option averaging just about 15 ppg. Those 2 scorers help the Bears be one of the better offensive teams in the Big Sky Conference. The problem with Northern Colorado is the defense. They are ranked 301st on KenPom defensively. The style of half-court offense they play is very aggressive on defense, especially pick and roles. There are a lot of traps, and they go after the ball handler on screens. However, their defense doesn’t result in high turnovers, which is strange for such an aggressive defense. They only have a 15.5% turnover rate, which is not a good rate. They also allow a lot of good shots as they allow some of the best percentages from beyond the arc and inside the arc. Some of their issues come from having very little rim protection. Their 2 starting big men average a combined .5 blocks per game. The one advantage of this is as a defense they don’t foul much because they aren’t contesting a lot of shots. The last problem with their defense is how many three-point shots they allow. When you allow a good percentage and a high volume of three-point shots you are going to get straight up out scored in games. If the Bears make noise, it will be because of Saint Thomas' scoring.
The last team that can realistically win the Big Sky tournament is the Montana Grizzles. The Griz have one of the best offenses in the conference. They rank 82nd on KenPom in offense and it starts with the trio of Aanen Moody, Dischon Thomas, and Brandon Whitney. While the offense is great, they lack true perimeter creation from any of their key guys, but they move the ball extremely effectively. Lots of high low actions for their big men. Moody is their best scorer but he’s more of a shot maker than a shot creator. The offense Montana runs reminds me a little bit of Northwestern and the way they use off ball screens to get Boo Buie open. This is obviously very effective because Boo Buie is one of the best shot creators in the nation as well, so it doesn’t work as well with Moody, but it still makes for good offense. The issue is that the defense is bad in almost every way. The Grizzles don’t force turnovers, they foul too much, and they allow a good percentage from all over the court. The one thing that they do well on defense is limit the number of shots their opponents take from beyond the arc. This creates some level of floor for this Montana Defense. If Motana is going to make a run at the championship it is going to be because their senior guards Moody and Whitney end their career on a hot streak and carry this offense to overcome their defense.
